One Term, Or Two? Obama Faces Season of Doubt

Just 13 months away from the 2012 election, President Obama currently is facing a surge of doubt regarding his re-electability. In response to the poll that suggests that 55% of Americans doubt that he will be elected again (along with a 41% approval rating), the President remarks, “I’m used to being an underdog.” If the election were held today, President Obama would beat Paul and Perry, but he would be tied with former Governor Mitt Romney. However, Presidential approval reflects conditions, and most Presidents have a point in their office when their ratings plummet. If the sink occurs in the beginning of the Presidency, the candidate tends to win reelection, but unfortunately for President Obama, the candidate generally has a weaker chance of recovery if he slips closer to reelection time. Both Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton were able to make comebacks after they saw their lowest approval ratings toward beginning of their presidencies. Similarly, George W. Bush’s approval ratings slipped in the spring of 2003, but he had enough time to recover. His father, however, was elected in 1988 and hit his slump in the summer of 1992 (just before reelection time), allowing Clinton to win the election. This trend does not look hopeful for President Obama, especially with the state of the nation as it is and right in the midst of GOP nominating conventions. Despite these ominous signs, President Obama can only lose if the Republicans can find the right person to beat him.

Despite his growing disapproval, President Obama is still attempting to use politics to his advantage to win the 2012 election. By calling himself an “underdog”, Mr. Obama is using the political tactic of lowballing. Both his supporters and his opponents will subconsciously be less expecting him to be triumphant in the election, but President Obama is expecting to win the election, making his victory more significant because of his initial title of the “underdog.” In Chris Matthew’s Hardball, he remarks that presidents like to complete a term when the economy is moving upwards. Obama has attempted to do so by implementing the American Jobs Act, and time will tell if this will be the deciding factor in the economy’s improvement. However, only the citizens of the United States can determine if Obama has done enough good for the nation to be elected once again in 2012.

These are the approval ratings of these six presidents in the fall of their third year in office.

http://www.npr.org/2011/10/07/141078659/one-term-or-two-obama-faces-season-of-doubt